The global giants of technology, media and telecommunications converge on the Las Vegas Convention Center this week for the International Consumer Electronics Show. What won't be converging anytime soon, though, are the products themselves.
After years spent promising mythical all-in-one devices that cater to consumers' every need, the industry now offers gadgets of all sizes, shapes and functions -- and plans even more.
When CES reached its 10th year back in 1977, the average American family owned just a handful of electronics devices -- a television, home stereo and perhaps a cassette deck. Now, as the conference celebrates its 40th anniversary, households have an average of 26 devices, according to the Consumer Electronics Association, the industry group that puts on the conference. They spent about $1,600 to buy those machines in 2006, up from $1,400 in 2005.
``Rather than a single product category driving the market, we're seeing a bunch of products. Whether it's digital cameras, MP3 players, personal computers or wireless phones, consumers are buying more products per household than they ever did before,'' said Sean Wargo, CEA's director of industry analysis.
The products and pronouncements at this year's CES will reflect this divergence. Companies will push competing machines based on their own platforms, such as PDAs that play MP3s to compete with digital music players, or LCD screens that act as both televisions and PC monitors. There will be partnership deals announced between big-name businesses, but no clear leader will emerge when it comes to delivering entertainment and information to the home or office in a unified package.
``We are a long way from having a single black box that will control all the media in our lives,'' said Henry Jenkins, professor of comparative media at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The spread of multiple technologies and form factors, or the size and shape of a device, alters the kinds of machines that people buy.
As more consumers picked up MP3 players or listened to music on mobile phones, sales in the $2 billion home audio market declined 10 percent in 2006. The wireless companies might be pushing smart phones with e-mail and Internet access, but sales of laptop computers have been strong enough to dominate the PC business, according to CEA. The explosion of mobile devices on the market also means businesses from Intel to Panasonic are displaying new battery and power technologies at the conference.
Two of the five keynote speakers -- Les Moonves of CBS and Robert Iger of Disney -- lead companies that provide entertainment content, and they're likely to talk about how to get their music, movies and television shows into the hands of users through a variety of gadgets. One may be through mobile TV-capable handsets, which a recent Lehman Brothers report predicted would rocket from 100,000 sold this year to 50 million in 2009.
For now, the unrealized vision of a ``digital home'' and converged technologies still confuses consumers. Ninety percent of Americans think the digital home is ``very expensive'' and two-thirds said it was too hard to set up, according to a national poll to be released by public relations firm Hill and Knowlton at the conference.
``There's a misnomer about CES. It's supposed to be all about the consumer, yet many companies are speaking over the consumer's head and selling them dreams rather than providing simple affordable services or products,'' said Joe Paluska, director of the worldwide technology practice at Hill and Knowlton, which represents CES heavyweights Motorola, Intel and Hewlett-Packard.
Nevertheless, there is evidence that some consumers want what the industry has been promising. Only 5 percent use their television to control all their home entertainment, but 25 percent want to, according to the Hill and Knowlton poll. And though their parents might not understand the technology, 59 percent of teens, who play an increasing role in home technology purchases, told pollsters they felt more informed than the average employee at consumer technology stores.
That demand might launch consumer electronics hits like Sling Media's Slingbox, which can send television programs from home to laptops and PDAs anywhere.
``It's a fairly new technology, but it's starting to gain momentum, as witnessed by venture capital funding -- and placement in major retailers like Best Buy is a validating moment,'' said CEA's Wargo.
While they're waiting for the dream device, for many technology users, divergence might be a better way to live. After all, not everyone needs to check their e-mail on the road, or play music outside the living room.
``Some think there is an optimized level of convergence. In fact, there isn't an optimum,'' said Dave Blakely, director of technology strategy at industrial design firm Ideo. ``We're all different and we need different things.''
Source: http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/business/16361275.htm